Predicting Wagyu Performance

For the Japanese Black producer, single trait selection focussed on marbling outcomes is a recipe for commercial mediocrity. By far the most important determinant of success is gross $$$$ carcass value. Heavy, high yielding carcasses with good maintained marbling easily outperform small (often high Tajima) exceptional marbling carcasses in dollar returns. A simple example table is provided in the ‘Value of Growth’ subsection below.

This section reviews the key value components of Japanese Black production, then performance prediction tools, starting with a snapshot of modern Japanese practice and then looking separately at western Crossbred (XB) and Australian Fullblood (FB) production segments and predictive tools. Australia is now the second largest Wagyu producer in the world, now with a predictive toolbox to include genomically enhanced EBVs (GEBVs). However, at the 2014 stage of rollout (2014 Research Sire/Dam Summary) researchers stress that results ‘should not be used in marketing’ and ‘no responsibility is accepted for any outcomes relating….’ (to the use of the research EBVs). There are good reasons for caution at this early stage, as noted below.

Although Japanese EBVs are based exclusively on carcass data, the Australian Research EBVs are a breakthrough in Western production of Japanese Blacks – the first time Australian Wagyu EBVs have been based on actual carcass results. Critical: because in no other cattle breed is accurate prediction of carcass outcomes as economically important. The foremost objective remains accurate estimation of marble score or intramuscular fat (%IMF) – the single most important Wagyu carcass value determinant.

Growth/carcass weight is the second most economically important trait. However, in the global market in which most Australian product is distributed, other crucial traits include yield, marbling fineness, REA, texture, fat colour, and other considerations of the Japanese (JMGA) grading system, some of which are entirely missing from the AUS-MEAT ‘language’ currently used for most Australian FB carcass assessment.

Predicting Wagyu Performance Summary

Overall, the mission-critical importance of carcass predictive tools is sharply highlighted when placed in an ordinary FB production (time) cycle: if a sire is first mated at two years of age (2yoa), and carcass performance data is first available from his progeny at 900 doa – then the sire is already around 5yoa. In the worst case scenario, this might represent a large number of unprofitable feeder progeny, not to mention dubious quality breeders if females have been retained.

Given that global proliferation of Wagyu genetics is less than thirty years old, Japan represents an obvious source of potential breed development, selection and performance measurement tools, with long-established genetic improvement programs. However, it is evident that new Wagyu industries outside Japan have chosen to largely ignore established Japanese production science and predictive technologies, having preferred instead to adapt existing Western cattle breeding systems and tools. Many years later, much Western re-invention remains ‘work in progress’, as is illustrated by the following Australian outcome:

After more than 25 years, Australia is just achieving credible national Wagyu sire ranking based on limited carcass data. There is no credible multi-trait ranking – for example, of local sires with excellent marbling and superior growth/yield etc traits in combination.

While local industry research ignores one important foundation of modern Japanese Black genetics (unique prefectural sub-genomes) at a scientific level, much of the local F1 industry also ignores most Western scientific input to Wagyu selection, and contradicts ALL science by insisting that ONLY specific sub-genome (Tajima/Hyogo prefecture) genetics offer safe performance.

On-going Western reluctance to embrace the indicators provided by Japanese Black sub-genomes also effectively limits ability to leverage a substantial Japanese scientific literature focused on the measurement of diminishing breed genetic diversity (effective population size), and the related implications for longterm genetic programs. Commencing in the late 1980s, this literature defines diversity in the specific context of the prefectural sub-genomes, which remain readily identifiable in all fullblood Japanese Black pedigrees worldwide. See Nomura et al, 2001 here and follow citations.