In the conventional beef cattle world, the feeder market provides the floor for all seedstock/feeder markets. Japanese Black Wagyu production in Australia is no exception and there are several sub-segments:
a) Domestic Fullblood Feeders for local feedlots.
Must be accompanied by either DNA parent verification or a fullblood pedigree with the capability of DNA PV for each feeder animal, these have usually represented the highest priced feeder category since market inception about 2005. Calves are marketed at 250-350kg/lwt at 10-15moa. In 2014, prices ranged $4.00 ~ $5.00 liveweight ex-GST at the weighbridge nominated by the buyer (so transport shrinkage loss is variable, but many buyers now pay transport).
Based only on online quotation, the segment was overtaken by the F1 feeder segment in mid-2015, but it must be noted many F1 buyers will also purchase FB feeders at the prevailing F1 price. In 2015, FB-only quotations range from a small range of buyers approx $4.50 – $5.80 ex GST LWT, pedigrees required, and usually with transport included. The significant difficulties facing the segment include shortage of supply and inadequate Australian grading systems that are incapable of differentiating FB performance at carcass level.
Most processors cannot obtain FB feeders with sufficient consistency to enable their investment in fullblood brand. As a result, some FB feeders may be intermingled with XB feeders in some smaller or newer systems, with a resultant opportunity loss to producers (see Issues below)
Genetics selection is more important in fullblood feeder production than many other breeds, due to widely variable growth patterns which have a direct impact on cost of production. The following table gives a typical scenario for prepping fullblood breeders of different genetic backgrounds for shipment, lower growth (high Tajima) genetics require substantially greater supplementation. ‘DOF” in this instance is the number of days of supplementary feeding required to get to shipping weight. More details are available under ‘Predicting Wagyu Performance’.
Indicative Pre-Shipping Preparation: High weaning/growth vs Lower weaning/Growth FB Feeders
Indicative Pre-Shipping Preparation: High weaning/growth vs Lower weaning/Growth FB Feeders
(Click for larger picture).
In the post-2015 price spike market, if FB feeders are likely be sold in to crossbred groups at similar $$ per kilo liveweight, choosing growth genetics becomes even more important to maintain producer profitability – most FBs will readily outperform XBs if marbling is the only criteria, but high Tajima calves are more likely to underperform in weight both pre-sale and on-feed.
b) Domestic XB (F1-F2)
Feeders For Local Feedlots: In the southeast, usually Holstein or AA females joined to buyer-approved, registered fullblood Japanese Black (JB) sires. JB/bos indicus crosses are common in northern pastoral. Demand has exceeded supply since 2013, and supply/demand pressure created a price breakout as a result of new buyer entrants in mid 2015. Prior to 2014, steer quotations in the $3.50kg/lwt @ 450kg were common. The price breakout occurred in July 2015, when AuctionsPlus recorded a Glen Innes, NSW live weight sale of a small line of Angus/Wagyu F1 steers (~12moa/313kg) @ $5.87/kg = $1775.00 ex GST. Small pens of F1 heifers achieved $5.20/kg and F1 steer weaners $5.34/kg. In following weeks, online F1 feeder prices were reported over 600c/kg, with continued upward momentum and buyer competition including heavyweights such as JBS and AACo. But similar listings were very hard to find by October 2015.
c) Export XB Feeders.
This long-running trade has seen up to 25,000 head of young, often Japanese Black/ AA F1 Wagyu shipped to Japanese feedlots in a year, usually via Brisbane. More recent export volumes have been 10K-13K PA. Animals must test negative for blue-tongue antibodies while in quarantine in SE Qld, which focuses procurement to the south . Pricing is by direct negotiation with agents, but was anecdotally to $3.50kg ex-GST LWT before the 2015 price spike, when segment buyers were forced to move closer to expectations set by online auctions. Contact buyers at Stanbroke Pastoral, Elders, the Australian Wagyu Network, Edwards Livestock and other specialist agents or export houses, some of which supply genetics/joining specifications. Demand exceeds supply in 2015.
d) Co-operator vertical production calf buyers.
These enterprises often forward contract with producers to take specified progeny, usually Wagyu F1, into a vertically integrated feeding/marketing business, and also supply genetics. The most well known is the Dairy Beef Alliance (DBA) focussed on F1 Japanese Black/ Holstein production, but similar buy-back arrangements occur in temperate beef cattle production, especially around live export. DBA is operated by Security Foods, which has also purchased fullblood feeders in recent years at market leading prices. All enterprises are privately owned, with no volume procurement details published and price grids usually available on direct contact with buyers.
e) Custom-fed Fullblood Carcase Spot Market
The custom fed FB market is well established with fulfilment at a carcass spot market operated by wholesalers. Steer or heifer feeders are finished at breeder expense for this market, mainly around SE Queensland, where custom feeding lots are located. Returns vary mainly by marble score and carcass weight, and will be significantly impacted by breeding/genetics and DOF. High Tajima carcasses will generally peak well below 450kg HSCW. Growth with marbling offers the best returns, as the following table from Blue Mountains Wagyu shows. Current minimum pricing is around $10kg CWT, while AUS-Meat MS 9 carcasses are returning $15kg CWT.
Indicative Returns: High/Low Growth FB Carcasses W/Varying AUS-MEAT Marble Scores
(Click for larger picture).
Breeder pricing represents the cost of entry for fullblood JB breeders. Despite negative bias favouring crossbred in breed measurement systems, fullblood breeding females remain in(traditional) short supply in 2015. There also remains a traditional premium for ‘first generation’ (original import livestock) sires and dams in pedigrees, largely due to the non-availability of second (local) generation genetics. FB heifers sold for breeding realised $3000- $5000/hd in late 2015.
Given FB feeder steer prices noted above, fullblood (always registered) Wagyu dams are theoretically worth up to twice as much as commodity breed beef dams, but mature registered AA breeders often compete strongly with FB Japanese Blacks in sale returns . Mature registered fullblood JB females may therefore be economically priced in 2015, albeit in short supply. Fullblood JB females can breed to 15-16 years of age, with 12yoa common. A basic vet check will determine potential.
Indicative breeding female pricing by category:
a. Maiden JB heifers (fully registered fullbloods).
Prices quoted in mid 2015 range from $3000 to $5000 ex GST. The 2015 AWA Conference benchmark average was $3133. AuctionsPlus in October 2015 reached $3550/hd for 148kg/hd av. Analysis of the growth/marbling potential of each pedigree is vital. The late 2015 market remains thin, with few lots on offer
b. PTIC FB Cows/Heifers.
Few lots are offered, 2014 quotes ranged from $2200 ex GST for 8-10year old cows. Proven AI sires in pedigrees or joinings will attract premiums. 2015 quotes are to $5000/hd for younger breeders with quality pedigrees. In an all-breeds comparison in the Australian cattle market, PTIC registered fullbloods capable of several calves should command at least $4000, but there is insufficient volume to determine an average. “Exceptional pedigree’ cows as sold to an average $6300/hd at the 2015 AWA Conference, but these cannot be taken as representative.
c. Cull FB cows.
There is the prospect of a premium over commodity pricing for cull /CFA JB females in Australia in 2015 – as the price of Wagyu burgers suggests there should be. At least one entrepreneur is believed to be surveying this market. Otherwise, over the hooks pricing applies, or saleyard returns probably less than $2.00kg liveweight.
The historic peak of Australian fullblood Japanese Black Wagyu bull pricing was achieved around 2005, with a Westholme, Tarana sale offering of fullblood sires mainly for F1 production. The sale average exceeded $8000, but the market ‘evaporated’ into the subsequent 2006 drought, followed by the GFC, when it is assumed most FB JB males were sold onto feed. In 2012-2014 period, observed fullblood JB sire prices ranged from $2500 to $5000 ex GST, with limited offerings, due to the continuing ‘safe’ alternative returns achieved in direct sales of young fullblood feeder steers, or in the retained ownership of feeder steers in custom feeding.
Auction sales at the 2014 & 2015 Australian Wagyu Association conferences achieved higher returns – an average $6600 in 2015. Asking prices for FB sires varied from $5500 to $7000. In late July 2015 as the AuctionsPlus bubble expanded but although clearances were high, prices still averaged an estimated $5500-$7000/hd in October 2015. As until the 2015 ‘bubble’ recedes it remains unclear what uncastrated male calf retention is taking place against possible2016 and 2017 bull market opportunities. Given ‘normal’ Australian agricultural cycles, a 2017 glut is possible.
A useful review of retail pricing for Wagyu beef products within Australia is largely thwarted by the fact that over 70% of production is destined for export. Local wholesale supply and retail sourcing is highly fragmented and dominated by a few high profile retail outlets in state capitals. Australian grading systems are effective only in measuring Wagyu crossbred beef, and FB offerings are ‘dumbed down’ into these parameters. Try a web search in a city near you.
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